TY - JOUR

T1 - Statistical prediction of immunity to placental malaria based on multi-assay antibody data for malarial antigens

AU - Siriwardhana, Chathura

AU - Fang, Rui

AU - Salanti, Ali

AU - Leke, Rose G. F.

AU - Bobbili, Naveen

AU - Taylor, Diane Wallace

AU - Chen, John J.

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - BackgroundPlasmodium falciparum infections are especially severe in pregnant women because infected erythrocytes (IE) express VAR2CSA, a ligand that binds to placental trophoblasts, causing IE to accumulate in the placenta. Resulting inflammation and pathology increases a woman’s risk of anemia, miscarriage, premature deliveries, and having low birthweight (LBW) babies. Antibodies (Ab) to VAR2CSA reduce placental parasitaemia and improve pregnancy outcomes. Currently, no single assay is able to predict if a woman has adequate immunity to prevent placental malaria (PM). This study measured Ab levels to 28 malarial antigens and used the data to develop statistical models for predicting if a woman has sufficient immunity to prevent PM.MethodsArchival plasma samples from 1377 women were screened in a bead-based multiplex assay for Ab to 17 VAR2CSA-associated antigens (full length VAR2CSA (FV2), DBL 1-6 of the FCR3, 3D7 and 7G8 lines, ID1-ID2a (FCR3 and 3D7) and 11 antigens that have been reported to be associated with immunity to P. falciparum (AMA-1, CSP, EBA-175, LSA1, MSP1, MSP2, MSP3, MSP11, Pf41, Pf70 and RESA)). Ab levels along with clinical variables (age, gravidity) were used in the following seven statistical approaches: logistic regression full model, logistic regression reduced model, recursive partitioning, random forests, linear discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis, and support vector machine.ResultsThe best and simplest model proved to be the logistic regression reduced model. AMA-1, MSP2, EBA-175, Pf41, and MSP11 were found to be the top five most important predictors for the PM status based on overall prediction performance.ConclusionsNot surprising, significant differences were observed between PM positive (PM+) and PM negative (PM−) groups for Ab levels to the majority of malaria antigens. Individually though, these malarial antigens did not achieve reasonably high performances in terms of predicting the PM status. Utilizing multiple antigens in predictive models considerably improved discrimination power compared to individual assays. Among seven different classifiers considered, the reduced logistic regression model produces the best overall predictive performance.

AB - BackgroundPlasmodium falciparum infections are especially severe in pregnant women because infected erythrocytes (IE) express VAR2CSA, a ligand that binds to placental trophoblasts, causing IE to accumulate in the placenta. Resulting inflammation and pathology increases a woman’s risk of anemia, miscarriage, premature deliveries, and having low birthweight (LBW) babies. Antibodies (Ab) to VAR2CSA reduce placental parasitaemia and improve pregnancy outcomes. Currently, no single assay is able to predict if a woman has adequate immunity to prevent placental malaria (PM). This study measured Ab levels to 28 malarial antigens and used the data to develop statistical models for predicting if a woman has sufficient immunity to prevent PM.MethodsArchival plasma samples from 1377 women were screened in a bead-based multiplex assay for Ab to 17 VAR2CSA-associated antigens (full length VAR2CSA (FV2), DBL 1-6 of the FCR3, 3D7 and 7G8 lines, ID1-ID2a (FCR3 and 3D7) and 11 antigens that have been reported to be associated with immunity to P. falciparum (AMA-1, CSP, EBA-175, LSA1, MSP1, MSP2, MSP3, MSP11, Pf41, Pf70 and RESA)). Ab levels along with clinical variables (age, gravidity) were used in the following seven statistical approaches: logistic regression full model, logistic regression reduced model, recursive partitioning, random forests, linear discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis, and support vector machine.ResultsThe best and simplest model proved to be the logistic regression reduced model. AMA-1, MSP2, EBA-175, Pf41, and MSP11 were found to be the top five most important predictors for the PM status based on overall prediction performance.ConclusionsNot surprising, significant differences were observed between PM positive (PM+) and PM negative (PM−) groups for Ab levels to the majority of malaria antigens. Individually though, these malarial antigens did not achieve reasonably high performances in terms of predicting the PM status. Utilizing multiple antigens in predictive models considerably improved discrimination power compared to individual assays. Among seven different classifiers considered, the reduced logistic regression model produces the best overall predictive performance.

KW - Predictive models

KW - Placental malaria

KW - Multiplex assays

KW - VAR2CSA

U2 - 10.1186/s12936-017-2041-3

DO - 10.1186/s12936-017-2041-3

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 28962616

VL - 16

JO - Malaria Journal

JF - Malaria Journal

SN - 1475-2875

M1 - 391

ER -